Rate Lock Advisory

Friday, July 11th

Friday’s bond market has opened in negative territory again as the markets react to new tariff headlines. Stocks are following suit, pushing the Dow lower by 258 points and the Nasdaq down 44 points. The bond market is currently down 15/32 (4.40%), which should cause an increase of approximately .125 - .250 of a discount point in this morning’s mortgage rates.

15/32

Bonds

30 yr - 4.40%

258

Dow

44,392

44

NASDAQ

20,586

Mortgage Rate Trend

Trailing 90 Days - National Average

  • 30 Year Fixed
  • 15 Year Fixed
  • 5/1 ARM

Indexes Affecting Rate Lock

Low

Neutral

Treasury Auctions (5,7,10,20,30 year)

Yesterday’s 30-year Treasury Bond auction wasn’t as successful as Wednesday’s 10-year Note sale. The benchmarks pointed to investor interest that was a little below average of other recent sales. Fortunately, bonds had little reaction to the 1:00 PM ET results announcement. The broader bond market did improve slightly during late afternoon trading, but it doesn’t appear to be due to the auction results. Accordingly, we are labeling the auction as neutral for mortgage rates.

Medium

Negative

Tariff News

There isn’t anything scheduled for today in terms of economic releases or other relevant events. However, President Trump’s surprise announcement of a 35% tariff on most Canadian goods coming into the U.S. on top of other related announcements over the past 48 hours has brought that topic back into the forefront for bond traders. There have been reports of the cost of goods starting to rise as a result of this year’s tariffs, so the fresh duties that were announced this week are fueling inflation concerns again in the bond market. Whether or not they will remain in place remains to be seen, but with such a light economic calendar this week, the new tariff headlines are driving bond trading this morning.

High

Unknown

Consumer Price Index (CPI)

For as little as there was scheduled this week, next week is equally as busy. There appears to be seven monthly economic reports set for release, including two key inflation indexes and a consumer spending report that are all considered to be highly important to the financial and mortgage markets. The week also has a slew of Fed member speeches, the last before they enter their two-week pre-FOMC quiet period. Each day has multiple events listed that we will be watching except for Monday, which is the only day without something scheduled that may affect rates. Look for details on next week’s calendar in Sunday evening’s weekly preview.

Float / Lock Recommendation

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

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Ford McNutt
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